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Robust X-Learner: Breaking the Curse of Imbalance and Heavy Tails via Robust Cross-Imputation

Uehara, Eichi

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Estimating Heterogeneous Treatment Effects (HTE) in industrial applications such as AdTech and healthcare presents a dual challenge: extreme class imbalance and heavy-tailed outcome distributions. While the X-Learner framework effectively addresses imbalance through cross-imputation, we demonstrate that it is fundamentally vulnerable to "Outlier Smearing" when reliant on Mean Squared Error (MSE) minimization. In this failure mode, the bias from a few extreme observations ("whales") in the minority group is propagated to the entire majority group during the imputation step, corrupting the estimated treatment effect structure. To resolve this, we propose the Robust X-Learner (RX-Learner). This framework integrates a redescending γ-divergence objective -- structurally equivalent to the Welsch loss under Gaussian assumptions -- into the gradient boosting machinery. We further stabilize the non-convex optimization using a Proxy Hessian strategy grounded in Majorization-Minimization (MM) principles. Empirical evaluation on a semi-synthetic Criteo Uplift dataset demonstrates that the RX-Learner reduces the Precision in Estimation of Heterogeneous Effect (PEHE) metric by 98.6% compared to the standard X-Learner, effectively decoupling the stable "Core" population from the volatile "Periphery".


Dimension-reduced outcome-weighted learning for estimating individualized treatment regimes in observational studies

Son, Sungtaek, Lila, Eardi, Chan, Kwun Chuen Gary

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Individualized treatment regimes (ITRs) aim to improve clinical outcomes by assigning treatment based on patient-specific characteristics. However, existing methods often struggle with high-dimensional covariates, limiting accuracy, interpretability, and real-world applicability. We propose a novel sufficient dimension reduction approach that directly targets the contrast between potential outcomes and identifies a low-dimensional subspace of the covariates capturing treatment effect heterogeneity. This reduced representation enables more accurate estimation of optimal ITRs through outcome-weighted learning. To accommodate observational data, our method incorporates kernel-based covariate balancing, allowing treatment assignment to depend on the full covariate set and avoiding the restrictive assumption that the subspace sufficient for modeling heterogeneous treatment effects is also sufficient for confounding adjustment. We show that the proposed method achieves universal consistency, i.e., its risk converges to the Bayes risk, under mild regularity conditions. We demonstrate its finite sample performance through simulations and an analysis of intensive care unit sepsis patient data to determine who should receive transthoracic echocardiography.


Learning to Call: A Field Trial of a Collaborative Bandit Algorithm for Improved Message Delivery in Mobile Maternal Health

Dasgupta, Arpan, Maniyar, Mizhaan, Srivastava, Awadhesh, Kumar, Sanat, Mahale, Amrita, Hegde, Aparna, Suggala, Arun, Shanmugam, Karthikeyan, Taneja, Aparna, Tambe, Milind

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Mobile health (mHealth) programs utilize automated voice messages to deliver health information, particularly targeting underserved communities, demonstrating the effectiveness of using mobile technology to disseminate crucial health information to these populations, improving health outcomes through increased awareness and behavioral change. India's Kilkari program delivers vital maternal health information via weekly voice calls to millions of mothers. However, the current random call scheduling often results in missed calls and reduced message delivery. This study presents a field trial of a collaborative bandit algorithm designed to optimize call timing by learning individual mothers' preferred call times. We deployed the algorithm with around $6500$ Kilkari participants as a pilot study, comparing its performance to the baseline random calling approach. Our results demonstrate a statistically significant improvement in call pick-up rates with the bandit algorithm, indicating its potential to enhance message delivery and impact millions of mothers across India. This research highlights the efficacy of personalized scheduling in mobile health interventions and underscores the potential of machine learning to improve maternal health outreach at scale.


Barriers to AI Adoption: Image Concerns at Work

Almog, David

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Concerns about how workers are perceived can deter effective collaboration with artificial intelligence (AI). In a field experiment on a large online labor market, I hired 450 U.S.-based remote workers to complete an image-categorization job assisted by AI recommendations. Workers were incentivized by the prospect of a contract extension based on an HR evaluator's feedback. I find that workers adopt AI recommendations at lower rates when their reliance on AI is visible to the evaluator, resulting in a measurable decline in task performance. The effects are present despite a conservative design in which workers know that the evaluator is explicitly instructed to assess expected accuracy on the same AI-assisted task. This reduction in AI reliance persists even when the evaluator is reassured about workers' strong performance history on the platform, underscoring how difficult these concerns are to alleviate. Leveraging the platform's public feedback feature, I introduce a novel incentive-compatible elicitation method showing that workers fear heavy reliance on AI signals a lack of confidence in their own judgment, a trait they view as essential when collaborating with AI.


Save, Revisit, Retain: A Scalable Framework for Enhancing User Retention in Large-Scale Recommender Systems

Jiang, Weijie, Ordorica, Armando, Yang, Jaewon, Gudmundsson, Olafur, Tu, Yucheng, Duan, Huizhong

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

User retention is a critical objective for online platforms like Pinterest, as it strengthens user loyalty and drives growth through repeated engagement. A key indicator of retention is revisitation, i.e., when users return to view previously saved content, a behavior often sparked by personalized recommendations and user satisfaction. However, modeling and optimizing revisitation poses significant challenges. One core difficulty is accurate attribution: it is often unclear which specific user actions or content exposures trigger a revisit, since many confounding factors (e.g., content quality, user interface, notifications, or even changing user intent) can influence return behavior. Additionally, the scale and timing of revisitations introduce further complexity; users may revisit content days or even weeks after their initial interaction, requiring the system to maintain and associate extensive historical records across millions of users and sessions. These complexities render existing methods insufficient for robustly capturing and optimizing long-term revisitation. To address these gaps, we introduce a novel, lightweight, and interpretable framework for modeling revisitation behavior and optimizing long-term user retention in Pinterest's search-based recommendation context. By defining a surrogate attribution process that links saves to subsequent revisitations, we reduce noise in the causal relationship between user actions and return visits. Our scalable event aggregation pipeline enables large-scale analysis of user revisitation patterns and enhances the ranking system's ability to surface items with high retention value. Deployed on Pinterest's Related Pins surface to serve 500+ million users, the framework led to a significant lift of 0.1% in active users without additional computational costs.